I don't think markets have any idea about what's going to happen in the next months. A bullish pennant is forming. China environmental reform will take a toll on growth and generate inflation. PBoC will probably not be very inclined to tighten policy as this might hurt economic expansion even more and will tolerate higher level of inflation, thus delivering lower real rates that will in the end help CNY depreciate.
In my September 8 - post I said, that the correction in wave B from 6. The actual low for the B has proved to be at 6. The rally that has followed has been both strong and impulsive. We still need a break above 6. The resent strength of the Chinese Yuan has cached the headlines lately, but my Elliott wave count suggest that the correction in wave B could be coming to an end in the cluster-area between 6.
As wave v of c of B has been the extended wave, we should expect a quick reversal once the low is in place. Short-term a break above 6. One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap.
We could be in the last large wave Say what you want about the number, this latest dip was due to this pair's action. Trump V China trade war has currency implications written all over it or visa versa. High yield corp bonds also watching closely as a market indicator.
Holiday in NK Tuesday, perhaps they will mark that with some actions? Watching, waiting, all sectors fragile right now. The capital out-flowing has been hammering the economy in long term as confirmed by the long term and medium term GDP band. Although the inflation band seems to be flat in long If the opportunity ever arises, positions in the security zone is a good choice.
Devaluation has been happeningin steps of pips. Kyle Bass has cited: With all developments in all other instruments, the one possible scenario for the next couple of months is a market crash, ignited by another Yuan devaluation.
It's been so calm during the last year because Yuan was stuck in a triangular correction. Should start moving faster now. I'll update this slowly, weekly chart and EW wave count labels will presented for you. No rush here and no panic here ok? Every detail will show for Chinese traders and western investors. Historically, the Chinese Yuan reached an all time high of 8. CNY is clearly about to crash. Just an expectations based on price trends. Show More Ideas 1 2 3 4 5 6.
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