Forex derivatives are an exciting prospect for anyone interested in making money. In essence Forex is an incredibly liquid market where you can use your PC to buy or sell currency instantly. The costs are modest and the leverage is substantial so only a small movement in the currency is necessary for your trade to become profitable.
There are plenty of details available elsewhere describing this so look here if you want more background. Swing trading means trading purely off the fluctuations in price that are predicted using the price history or other immediately available historic data such as trading volumes or prices of other currencies.
Swing trading is intuitively appealing - when we look at a fluctuating price we see trends and it seems natural to believe that we could profit by buying or selling at the start of these trends and then closing the trades for a profit when the trends end.
Reality is a little more tricky. When you are trading for real you can only trade at the extreme right hand edge of the graph - in other words you are guessing where the price will go next. Suddenly things seem a whole lot less predictable.
If the market was perfect then all of the supply and demand and all of the fundamental factors interest rates, politics, commodoties demand etc.
If enough people believe that the price is determined by its history and they buy and sell on that belief then the supply and demand that those people generate can indeed be predicted by using the same price history that they are using. If there are enough such people then perhaps enough of the variation in price can, at least sometimes, be determined purely using the price history.
It is this tenuous possibility that keeps me looking at forex as a potential source of income. That, plus the fact that 3 trillion dollars a day changing hands makes it the largest virtual casino in history. After over 4 months of research I am still unsure if I can make money swing trading forex. I am still researching. I have reached the position that if someone can accurately describe a strategy that is based upon available forex data, then I can code an automatic version of that strategy and run simulations using real back data to verify whether or not it will really make money.
I'm still looking to find a strategy that can actually make a consistent profit - sadly I know of no way to prove that such a strategy really exists but it seems possible. The moment such a strategy does indeed prove profitable, I can use the same code used to verify it to actually make trades. That would be very cool because it can make a percentile gain over time with no further action required on my part except for deciding how to spend the profits.
I recently attended one of Greg Secker's empowernet driven seminars proclaiming to reveal the "ultimate forex secrets". The three strategies he promised to reveal after you pay him are all swing trading tactics in sharp contrast to Greg Secker's blog which suggests a focus on trading fundamentals. Only then will he reveal the secrets I need. Well, if he had those secrets indeed, if they even exist , he would be trading. I've learned that it is scarily easy to create trading strategies that are provably fantastic so long as they are proven on the same information that they are developed on.
I started using the notion of channel breakouts where I judged that if a price has been roughly constant for some time and then starts to change it is likely to change by enough to make a good trade.
Optimising this showed that I could double my money in a month using a 50pt high 15 bar long channel with a tight stop loss and modest profit. I did the test on two months of data, the same two months I did the optimisation work on.
Guess what happened when I tried the same strategy with the same optimisation on the following two months: The reason is actually quite simple. Almost any strategy can be optimised and if you test it on the same data it is optimised on then it will perform well. Remember this if you are tempted to buy into a "proven" strategy or plan. Now I always test against different periods to those that I optimise on. As a result I am still searching for a strategy that can really deliver.
I went to his program in Sydney - was amazing, ive tried alot of other systems that tell people they work, but just didnt for me. I hope you make it. Of course Greg would be long past the billion mark assuming he'd invested even a small portion of his course revenues when he started. I wonder what keeps a billionaire flitting from hotel to hotel drumming up candidates for his courses? Mike, Iam just writing to you, because after 3 hours of trying to find some logical comment on Secker's scam, yours was the first one.
I am a hedge fund trader - being here for 6 years - and I have a few Masters, CFAs, the whole lot needed to be successful in the empty world of finance - making the 7 digit figures - all of that, and in my free time I am trying to find ways to critisize the stupidity of people that believe there is a system, that trading can be taught.
Trading is just luck - some people, as always, are luckier than others, hence can make money for a few years in a row - they are still part of the distribution; if they ever have a system that can consistently make them money which by definition is what Secker says , then they will be very stupid to teach it - because if they do it to a lot of people and that's what Secker wants to do - the system stops working.
Thank you for saying the obvious and I hope more people will take notice, and spend their free time in more meaningful ways. Thanks attilas I think you mean me not mike from the content of your comment. We live in a time when its easier to make money by inventing something that doesn't work and putting the real effort into marketing it rather than making it work if that is even possible so people pay. You call me stupid and perhaps you are right but I did get First Class honours at Oxford University so at least a few people disagree with you.
I believe its really simple statistics and common sense rather than stupidity. If successful, it would, of course, mean that Greg would be one of the richest men on the planet so its a bit strange that he is still spending his time presenting a very hard sell getting people to attend and endorse his expensive training courses.
Bottom line for anyone: Be smart not stupid. You might play his system and get a short run of winnings - with thousands of people paying him and people like him for the tips, some few dozens even hundreds will certainly win for a while - but even if you get lucky to begin with, you will lose in the long run. I think he likes it. He also likes to think he is helping people to become a profitable trader. His system of providing coaching for traders over a long term with Max and others is the reason he succeeds I think - looking at trades and discussing how to improve trade selection, plus learning to use discretion as well - not just Greg's 3 trading strategies but building on these in a personal way.
Success is nearly always a hard road but for those who keep steering towards it it does happen. By the way Paul First Class Honours at Oxford doesn't give you an edge to be a better trader than the rest of us.
Traders need to think outside the square - extremely outside the square. First Class Honours is certainly not a qualification that will make you money I suspect. Satisfaction maybe but not money. My degree never made me money for sure! If you believe everyone loses in the long run Paul you will indeed lose in the long run - or more likely the short run.
Be a good trader is a long journey. I was one of Max's trainees before, I won't say I'm a good trader, but at least I can see where I am in this journey. I can tell you, only few days course cannot make you become a good trader, that's for sure. But can make you find and see the path of this journey, and you can walk on it easier. Nobody can really change this part but yourself.
At least you should get some trading psychology books, and you might find out what happened. No one but yourself, can make you become a good trader. And, no university can make you a good trader. AND, Good to see you again here, Max! It is such a surprise! Not everybody loses money trading Forex in the long term. The small percentage that consistently make money do not use systems like Greg's. That is his way of making money out of people wanting to make money on Forex. Professional traders make money either by using fundamental analysis or by using computers and facilities to gain a small speed advantage in trading trends.
If you have any system that uses technical analysis you can test it thoroughly on a trading platform I use Go Trader MT4 with historic data. If doing this manually it is absolutely essential that you do not view any of the forward data while making your decisions for obvious reasons.
Try this before you invest real money - don't fall for the 'having to use real money' line. Wow Max, Sorry you had such a bad experience with your education. I am sorry I confused you too. The people who make money on Forex do so with fundamental analysis and with advanced statistical techniques and very fast computers and network access. I am afraid these things require more and different education to that which you have received from Greg.
I believe traders using his techniques will lose money in the long run. You will never join the traders you cite by following Greg's training which is a simple form of trend analysis.
The lack of emotion he pushes is a good thing though and it reduces your average losses to the ongoing cost of trading the spread. Perhaps you find yourself thanking Greg for your wins and blaming yourself for your losses. I suggest that you begin your road to recovery by breaking just one of his rules. Use a demo account. If you find a system that works there then you can apply it to real money trading after you've proved it without using real money. If you succeed in trading without emotion then a demo account is exactly the same as a real money account except for the very convenient fact that it does not cost you any real money.
In the long term you will find that trend analysis does not work. If you study the market in terms of fundamentals the financial news, reports, announcements etc. What Max has not mentioned to you while he is ranting on is that he actually works for Greg Secker and Knowledge to Action. I recently attended one of their free seminars and a lot of the literature talks about the 'Max Factor'.
Max is apparently one of their trainers and a success story. So successful that he has time to teach. Having now read what Max has to say I must admit I am more than put off from spending any of my training budget with them. I dont think I would want to risk disagreeing with him I am sure Mr Secker is more than capable of trading and I am sure he has made a lot of money from it to date and will continue to do so in to the future. I think what he has set up looks ok for those of us new to Forex and wanting a taste for it.More...