In this second part I will explain methods you can use to enhance the profitability of this entry method. A back test was conducted from until the end of , which is a total of 16 years covering many types of market conditions. The currency pairs examined were the seven major USD currency pairs.
During the period covered by the back test there were 5, hypothetical trades. The hypothetical results are shown in the table below, in total and by currency pair, in the form of expectancy per trade at different reward to risk profit targets. It is easy to see that the method had a positive expectancy that increases with the size of the profit target all the way up to a reward to risk ratio of to 1!
There were 6, hypothetical trades, i. The results of this back test are shown below:. This is good news, as it shows you have two different entry methods that can be used to profitably exploit trends! Now let's break these results down further. The times shown in the table below are London times:.
We can see that noon and 4pm look like good times to enter trades here too. However midnight looks much worse and 8pm much better. This effect might be producing a fast reversion to the mean. This really stands out as the biggest variance by time of all the currency pairs tested here. It makes sense as the Asian session is well outside the business hours of the U. After all, as the profit targets are defined by reward to risk, a smaller candle that gives pips maximum profit could be more profitable than a larger candle that gives pips profit as using a constant risk per trade would produce different position sizes.
Looking at the stats, there's no question that the smaller candlesticks or two-candlestick combinations do produce more profitable results than the overall average where the range is less than 0.
There is plenty of tried and tested material here in this article to build a complete, long-term trend trading strategy. Exact entry strategies are not so very important, what is more important instead is sticking to a plan for entry and taking every opportunity that comes along because in trend trading, it is i mportant not to miss the big winners, even when the set-up does not seem to be of particularly high quality.
Remember that in Forex, it is quite possible to not get any long, strong moves for quite a while, so it is important to take profits here and there, regularly, because if you sit tight waiting for the huge 1, pip winners, they may not come for a year or so.
Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy. For example, if the candle high or low the entry point is at 1. I did not calculate values based on ATR. Registration is required to ensure the security of our users. Login via Facebook to share your comment with your friends, or register for DailyForex to post comments quickly and safely whenever you have something to say.
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The results of this back test are shown below: The times shown in the table below are London times: Conclusion There is plenty of tried and tested material here in this article to build a complete, long-term trend trading strategy.
Adam Lemon Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. Sign Up Read Review. Free Forex Trading Courses Want to get in-depth lessons and instructional videos from Forex trading experts? Sign up to get the latest market updates and free signals directly to your inbox.
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