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According to Google Analytics around 1 unique visitors attend our site each month. Software development for financial purposes. Calyon looks for dollar rebound this year In your opinion, how big the potential for further upside is? We think we could move above 1. Recently among market participants there were talks about possible ECB intervention if euro continues to appreciate. We think it will depend on the pace of the move and whether it will be accompanied by pick up in volatility but for now the risk of intervention is still fairly limited.
Speaking about euro prospects we won't call them very positive. A lot of negativity is already in the price in terms of the US, so I think we will see some reassessment of US growth outlook and perhaps more importantly reassessment of growth elsewhere in a world, ant potentially some downside risks to the European growth outlook. Misfortunes of US and canadian dollars are not over yet A number of other currencies also benefited from the dollar's decline, though the Canadian Dollar has been obviously left behind despite the positive trend in commodities.
It seems that the resilience of the Loonie was conditioned by the monetary policy of BOC. Could you share your interest rates forecasts with us? We suppose that the Bank of Canada will continue to reduce rates, at present our forecast is 50 b. I agree that the position of the Central Bank has capped the uptrend in Canadian dollar lately.
When you look at a number of currencies and how they have been performing against the US Dollar, you could notice that the Canadian dollar and the British pound showed the worst results due to the rates decrease in these respective countries, as the possibility of monetary easing in G10 countries is considered to be a negative factor.
The market is expecting a number of economic data to be published in the nearest couple of days. Could you underline the most important reports among those that will be published on Wednesday and tell us what we should expect from the UK retail sales report scheduled on Thursday?
What might they mean for British pound? Obviously, there is a lot of concern about the US economy slowdown, but there are some other factors that should never be overlooked and the elevated inflation is certainly among them. We expect that in January the headline CPI continued to accelerate on a year-to-year basis to 4.
Another fairly important data is the housing starts report. The house market in the US is really weak, and, I think, the market participants will pay much attention to these numbers.
Yesterday the Bank of England, as expected, cut the rate 0. What actions shall we expect from the Bank in the future? Do you think that it will have to adopt more aggressive stance of monetary policy easing due to risks to economic growth? I don't think that there will be a more aggressive rate cut than it is currently expected by the market, which is basis points. The Central Bank made a strong emphasis on current inflation and outlooks for inflation in its yesterday's statement, so I think that the Bank of England will proceed with caution.
I don't think that we will see the same monetary policy style in the UK as in the USA, and the Central Bank will be much more gradual in its approach though this can lead to the significant short-term interest rates cut. Interview given to Pro Finance Service by Dr. Economist at High Frequency Economics. Shepherdson has been described by the London Times as one of "the best economists in the City". His publication, Daily Notes on the United States, is widely read by investors, policymakers and dealers in 20 countries.
Prior to joining High Frequency Economics, Dr. Shepherdson was recently named top U. He is frequently quoted in the U. National Public Radio's Marketplace. He earned his Ph. Today's interviewee of the Pro Finance Service is one of those people who live in tow cities at once. We managed to speak to Mr. Ian Shepherdson while he was staying in the capital of the United Kingdom. The Asian session show that the market has calmed down and the volatility is now lower.
Do you think the situation has really stabilized? Yesterday's actions in the stock market during American session and trade dynamics in Asia seem positive in the short-term, and we can see something like risk assets rally and lower volatility, in particular, taking into account coming FOMC meeting on rates, which is held next weak. But we suppose that market participants don't know all negative news concerning credit market and global economy perspectives, and current improvements are temporary.
We expect some correction but in general see potential for further stock market downtrend and continued Japanese yen and Swiss frank strength. We believe correlation between the stock and currency market dynamics will remain, in particular, yen and franc will continue to move in tandem with the equity market. The recent situation on financial markets is characterized by high volatility. How long do you think this period of high volatility will last? In foreseeable future during the year - ProFinanceService.
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